Also this issue: Rendell For President?

November 7-13, 2002

cover story

What are the odds?

by Daryl Gale

Rendell for President? Laugh out loud if you want to, but John Zogby, CEO of Zogby International, a nationally recognized polling firm, gave the question some serious thought.

“There are two roads I don’t go down: one is Route 81 out of Binghamton, New York, and the other is whether Judaism precludes someone from high office,” Zogby says with a laugh. “But seriously, when Joe Lieberman was running for vice president, we asked that question. We asked whether a Jew, a gay person, a woman or a racial minority would have an honest chance in a presidential bid, and of those, Jew came out number one. In other words, the people we polled would vote for a Jewish candidate with less hesitancy than they would vote for a candidate in the other categories.”

About Rendell specifically, Zogby says he likes the big guy’s chances.

“In ’97 or ’98, when he was still mayor, I said the Democrats would be wise to consider Rendell. And now his odds are only improving. As the governor of a large, important swing state, and former chair of the [Democratic National Committee], he has the advantage of name recognition, the ability to raise money and the ability to get people out and vote. So no, I don’t doubt Ed’s chances at all.”

Jake Tapper writes for Salon and a host of other political magazines and websites. Last year he wrote the best-selling book Down and Dirty, an inside look at the Bush-Gore presidential race and Florida voting fiasco. Tapper has been called one of the best young journalists in Washington, but stays close to his Philadelphia roots. And as a native, he's taken a particular interest in Ed Rendell.

"Of course it's way too early to say right now, but when I interviewed him for the Salon piece, he said he had thoughts about running for president," says Tapper. "I don't think it's out of the question. He's a smart guy with an earthy charm, a big, burly working-class type who could be from just about any ethnic group. The idea is perfectly logical."

And what about the religion thing?

"Hey, a plurality of the country voted for a Jewish vice president, Tapper says, so I don't think his religion will be that much of a factor. He has as good a chance as anyone whose name has been thrown around by the Democrats so far. He's as electable as Daschle, Gephardt or Gore, but of course, that's right now. His electability will depend mostly on how he does as governor."

Barry Morrison, regional director of the Anti-Defamation League, watched the last presidential race closely, and was pleasantly surprised by the lack of anti-Semitism toward Lieberman.

Nothing in that campaign made us think his religion was any kind of drawback, Morrison says. Of course, there are certainly people who wouldn't vote for him because of it, but those people will always be with us. Take a look at Congress. Jews are well-represented in the House and Senate. It should be noted also that Ed Rendell is a secular, non-observant Jew. His religion wasn't part of his public persona as mayor, or in the campaign for governor, so it probably wouldn't be too much of an issue in a national election.

Lieberman broke fresh ground and made Judaism less of an issue in a national race, says Clay Richards. Richards is assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, and says that Rendell could be the best thing going for the Democrats in 2008.

Mayors of big cities are hot properties these days, Richards continues. Just look at Giuliani. And Rendell, remember, was America's Mayor before Giuliani. Rendell's the new star of the Democratic Party. He's got name recognition and a natural leg up as former chair of the party. He polls evenly among men and women, which is unusual for any politician, and really comes off as an everyman.