The highlight of Monday's agenda was a session called "2006 Elections: Implications for the Nation and the Northeast." The keynote speaker was Pulitzer Prize-winning Washington Post columnist David Broder.

Broder opened his remarks by saying, "I am sorry to say I may offend some of you." He then explained that he bases his election predictions on the Post's shoe-leather reporters who go door-to-door to get a feel for what people are really talking about. He said he did not put much stock in polls, because he thinks people aren't inclined to say what they are really thinking when asked scripted questions.

"The voters are restless this year," said Broder. "It could be another 1994 all over again." That year, Democrats lost control of the House and Senate to Republicans. Broder says such a radical change could happen again this year because people want to oust any legislator who voted for the war, and the majority of them are Republicans.

"Whether they agreed with the war or not, people are upset now because there is no plan to get out," said Broder. "They are also afraid of the strain on the National Guard and the Reserves. These are not professional fighters and their deaths leave a gaping hole in local communities all across the nation.

"Immigration is the second. And as the grandson of an immigrant, I personally welcome it. But when you talk to people in rural parts, like Minnesota, they see immigrants hired at the local plant making less money. It causes a real social strain."

The last two major complaints voters have are high energy prices and health care, Broder said.

Broder predicts change could come through high-profile races in New York and Connecticut. He said he thinks that after Democratic Attorney General Eliot Spitzer beats primary opponent Thomas Suozzi in the New York governor's race, he will then defeat Republican John Faso. He also expects Connecticut U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman to lose the Democratic primary to billionaire and political unknown Ned Lamont.

Addressing Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race, Broder said, "[Bob] Casey should not take his current lead for granted. And if he does, he may be in for a surprise because [incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick ] Santorum is a fighter."

Sitting at the head table, Pennsylvania state Senate President Pro Tempore Robert Jubelirer said in an interview that he does not yet have any plans for a new job after the Senate session ends in December. Jubelirer lost the GOP primary last May to political neophyte John Eichelberger in part because of the pay-raise backlash.Jubelirer also fell victim to the growing movement of GOP conservatives, such as Club for Growth Pres-ident Patrick Toomey and local businessman Bob Guzzardi, who, supported and funded Eichelberger.

While Jubelirer seemed resigned about anger over the pay raise, he was not as forgiving of the conservative movement. "They seem to decide who is conservative and who is not and that will be the demise of the Republican Party," said Jubelirer, who considers himself a centrist. "I got things done."

But Timoney's well-known political sense kept him from issuing any substantial comment.

"I'm not going near that," said a grinning Timoney when asked about the current situation and whether Johnson should go.

Known as a reformer for his brash and innovative ways of fighting crime in New York, Timoney made a name for himself here when then-Mayor Ed Rendell tapped him in 1998. Esquire named Timoney top cop of the year in 2000.

The circumstances of Timoney's departure under Mayor John Street were always unclear. He did a brief stint with Beau Dietl's security firm in New York before going to Miami as its police chief. Miami has seen the violent crime rate fall by 7.5 percent in the last two years.

(m_patel@citypaper.net)