NEWS . The Insider

Do Campaign Polls Matter?

Fattah is talking about crime first because it's the most important issue to voters.


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Published: Jan 17, 2007

During the next few months, people across Philadelphia will dissect every aspect of the mayoral campaign. They will discuss the candidates' records and proposals, who can win and who is winning. Occasionally, they may even discuss who actually should win.

That isn't what this column is about.

Rather, this will aim to offer insights into why decisions are being made by the candidates, and what those decisions mean. Sometimes, it will look at the ridiculousness that candidates have to endure in order to be elected. This first installment focuses on the role of polls in campaigns, why they are (and sometimes aren't) important and how they are used by campaigns.

Political insiders — pundits, donors and others who like to sound smart — are obsessed with polls. The day after one race ends, they begin discussing the polls about the next one. It's what we do. But what do they mean and how do campaigns use them?

There are two types of polls people hear about during campaign season: public and internal polls. Both play an important role.

Public polls are usually conducted by media outlets or interest groups. (The recent release of the Susquehanna Polling & Research poll for Pennsylvanians for Effective Government is an example.) Internal campaign polls are sometimes released to the public — usually as a way to raise money or influence media coverage — but mostly they are kept private because they are used to make strategic decisions about what the campaign message should be, how to run a campaign and where and when to spend money.

There are two main criteria by which to judge a poll: who was surveyed and how big the sample size was.

How big a sample size was used is pretty much self-explanatory. The larger the sample, the smaller the margin of error and the more likely the findings reflect what would happen if the actual vote was taken that day.

Who was surveyed doesn't mean particular individuals, but rather types of voters. Because such a small percentage of voters actually vote (much less vote in primaries) and campaigns are only concerned with actual voters, the sample should reflect the group of people who turn out on Election Day.

If there are too many or too few whites, African-Americans, women, men, seniors, people from West Philly or Northeast Philly residents, the poll will not likely accurately predict the outcome. But getting the survey sample right — especially this early — is tough. It's one of the reasons polling is as much art as science.

So, is one type of poll better than others? Yes, and it comes down to both cost and the talent of the pollster.

Public polls tend to be limited by expense. The media outlet or interest group only has a certain budget that the poll is crafted to stay within. Private polls, which will dictate the direction of the campaign and the expenditure of millions of dollars, tend to survey more people, be more reflective of the voting population and ask more detailed questions. Therefore, they are more expensive.

Since the analysis of the polling data is critical, the talent of the pollster is also important. I have had to rewrite both poll questionnaires and their findings more than once for poor pollsters. It's worth it for a candidate to hire a good one.

So, what do polls mean this far out?

The truth is, public polls don't mean much this far from Election Day because they mainly focus on the horse race. There's no real way to tell this early. Sometimes the situation changes drastically, sometimes it doesn't. Case in point: Bob Casey Jr.'s lead against Ed Rendell in the 2002 governor's race that disappeared and his lead against Rick Santorum in the 2006 Senate race that didn't.

But public polls do have some value for the candidates who are seen as "winning." They help fundraising and build a sense of momentum. I guarantee that U.S. Rep. Chaka Fattah, his campaign and consultants frequently cite the public polls that show him leading when talking to potential donors. They'd be stupid not to — and they are not stupid.

Private polls, with their level of detail, are used to dictate the message and targeting of a campaign. What is the most important issue to those voters most likely to show up on Election Day? Where do the people live who are most likely to come out to vote?

Campaigns will target their message to and spend their time (and money) in communities where there are lots of voters.

As an example of how this works, consider Fattah's recent announcement of a crime package. When he announced for mayor, he said his priority would be education, but his first policy proposal was about crime. Why? Because crime is the most important issue to voters in every community. That doesn't mean the congressman doesn't care about crime or that he has stopped caring about education. But it does mean he's talking about it first because it's the most important issue to voters. It's also why you will see U.S. Rep. Bob Brady, the ultimate insider, talk about government and political reform: Voters care about it.

(theinsider@citypaper.net)