Could Tom Cruise to Victory?

Why and how Tom Knox hsa come from nowhere to second place in the mayoral race


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Published: Mar 6, 2007

In a well-run campaign, almost everything a candidate does is targeted toward assembling enough votes to win. In a poorly run campaign, there is little rhyme or reason why candidates are (or are not) doing something. So, for the next five weeks, I will attempt to explain why candidates are (or are not) doing certain things.

We'll start with Tom Knox, who has come from nowhere to second place on the strength of television ads.

Knox is running as a reformer and someone who is "outside the system" (and therefore presumably uncorrupted by it). This is the right move given how many voters believe government is not working for the people, but for special interests. As reported by the Inquirer, "Seventy-six percent [of poll respondents] said city government was 'pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves.' Fifty-three percent said city officials 'waste a lot of money.' Half said 'quite a few' officials were corrupt."

On one level, Knox's reformer credentials are undercut by the fact that he actually is an insider — he was deputy mayor to Ed Rendell and a major campaign donor — and that he made his money through payday lending and the insurance industry. But since he is the only candidate with any significant money to put their message on television and radio, the reformer image will be hard for others to take away. Which means his decision to go up on television early was the right move.

Because he has been up on air for so long with ads about his biography, reform and crime, and no one has countered with negative ads, he can create whatever public persona he wants. The newest Knox ad also deftly takes away Chaka Fattah's key campaign theme of "opportunity" by prominently promising "opportunity for Philadelphia's young people." (Well done.)

Knox is also largely letting his television ads do the talking for him, which is key given his wooden and sometimes still-shaky stump performance. Yes, he appears at debates and forums — he has to — but has otherwise largely appeared only at tightly controlled, campaign-sponsored events. He does not hold many — or any that I have seen — open press conferences and there have been few open policy announcements where he can be questioned.

It is interesting that the few policy papers he has released — four appear on his Web site — are clearly targeted at a distinct voting base: African-Americans. According to polls, the issues of most concern to African-Americans are crime and drugs, education and jobs. So, Knox's policy papers address crime ("Stopping the Violence"), drugs ("Fighting Addiction"), education ("Making Our Schools a Path to the Future") and jobs ("Upgrading Philadelphia's Workforce"). True, every candidate will hit these key issues, but not in the same way. It was smart to specifically address the concerns of this large voting block.

One would expect that Knox, whose business background figures so prominently in his campaign, call for business tax cuts to spur jobs; instead, he's focused on job training. Knox also has yet to release a plan to actually reform government, which is not a priority for African-Americans, according to polls.

I believe Knox is mistaken if he thinks he can target this key demographic without being more substantive and broad in his policy work. This is a weakness for his campaign, but there is plenty of time to make up ground. Still, on the whole, Knox is running a smart campaign that wisely uses his strengths while hiding his weaknesses.

If he can put together a solid Election Day operation — which he's certainly in a position to do — he might be our next mayor.

(editorial@citypaper.net)