Round Two

Obama needs to conquer Philly all over again.

by Emily Schultheis

Elliott Curson SPRING FEVER: Obama supporters were pretty excited for the primary. Can they get revved up for the general election too? (CLICK IMAGE FOR LARGER VERSION)

Back during the Democratic primary, Philadelphia was Barack Obama territory. The candidate had a vast volunteer network and the city's demographics in his favor; when he staged a rally at Independence Mall in April, swooning supporters filled city streets as far as the eye could see.

Obama ended up beating his opponent, Sen. Hillary Clinton, by about 65 percent to 35 percent in Philadelphia County. He also won in nearby Chester and Delaware counties. But he lost in Bucks and Montgomery. And he lost the state overall.

Pennsylvania is generally a blue state — its voters have chosen a Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. But it's light blue, and in 2008, against Republican John McCain, it may well be up for grabs. While Obama will "do well within the city of Philadelphia," University of Pennsylvania political science professor Rogers Smith says, he will have a much more uphill battle in our suburbs, as well as other suburban and rural areas in the state. He needs to do well enough here to cancel out those tougher spots.

For Obama, then, the questions about Philly are clear: Could he have done better here? And what does he need to do to ensure victory in November?

Despite the initial improbability of a contested Pennsylvania primary, Obama volunteer and staff organization in the state started early, and was up and running long before the Keystone became a major battleground for the Democratic nomination.

Philly for Obama, a local volunteer group that coordinates with the national campaign, was created in August 2007, and really got off the ground with preparations for the October debate at Drexel University, says co-chairman Josh Uretsky.

"We actually had people whose lives were being taken over by the campaign all the way back in October," he says.

"On some level, all campaigns have to be really centralized, but early on, they gave a lot of that power and that ability to communicate to the activists," Uretsky explains. "I don't think any other campaign had tried similar things or done them successfully."

Cooperating with paid staffers, groups like Philly for Obama canvassed the city and worked on get-out-the-vote efforts. They were joined by student groups from universities like Temple, Drexel and Penn.

The campaign's organization in Philly was the real deal. But, says political analyst and St. Joseph's University history professor Randall Miller, "It turned out it wasn't as effective as Obama's people thought it would be."

The way Miller sees it, the campaign's flaws in the state weren't organizational. They were out of the campaign's control. "There were so many elements that were beyond organization," he says. "There was the idea of two historic candidacies. ... Now, [Obama] is not running against the first woman and everything that meant."

Miller also cites the Clinton leanings of many of the state's prominent politicians — namely Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell — as a major disadvantage for Obama because of the "wisdom and contacts" that he brought to his opponent's campaign.

In his January endorsement of Clinton at City Hall, Rendell vowed to do whatever he could to help his old friend Hillary Clinton. And when the race for the nomination came to Pennsylvania, he delivered — both on television and with potential donors — playing an important role in orchestrating Clinton's nine-point victory.

Obama's main obstacles from the Pennsylvania primary may not be present in the November general. But that doesn't mean the race will be smooth sailing.

After Obama's defeat in the primary, he — and his staff — moved on to campaign in North Carolina and Indiana. Numerous campaign offices here closed up. This wasn't shortsighted: The Democratic nomination was up for grabs, and Obama had to put his resources where they were needed most.

Still, it means that, in returning to the state, the campaign has some rebuilding to do. There are currently no campaign offices open in Philly, spokesman Dan Leistikow says (announcements will be made in the next few weeks). And, says Miller, "People do burn out on this stuff. There's a general relaxation that can occur that could affect volunteer enthusiasm and levels of commitment."

The campaign has tried to keep people involved. Philly for Obama steering board member Seth Williams says that some volunteers continued to make calls or raise money from Philadelphia, and voter registration efforts continued on city streets.

"Our goal [after the Pennsylvania primary] was to do what we could to educate people in what they could do here in Philadelphia," said Williams.

The campaign also sent Obama Organizing Fellows, a group of college students selected by the campaign to assist in voter registration and volunteer recruitment efforts. According to Obama spokesman Reid Cherlin, there are 350 Organizing Fellows in Pennsylvania, split between Philadelphia, Harrisburg and Pittsburgh.

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In Philly, at least, one of Obama's main challenges may be winning over former Clinton supporters (Democrats outnumbering Republicans dramatically here). Having Rendell on his side will help, as will, presumably, having Clinton.

Uretsky, of Philly for Obama, feels confident that support for the two Democrats doesn't have to be mutually exclusive.

"I think [people who voted for Hillary Clinton] didn't vote for Hillary because they voted against Obama," he said. "They voted for Hillary because they liked Hillary."

There's reason to believe he's right. A poll conducted earlier this month by ABC News and The Washington Post found that about three-quarters of Clinton supporters who are now backing Obama said their vote will be more pro-Obama than anti-McCain.

But that's not all Clinton supporters — 23 percent, or nearly one in four, of those who supported Clinton in the primaries said they will vote for McCain this fall.

One way Obama might make some inroads there would be to have Clinton supporters working on his behalf. In Philly, Uretsky says, he hasn't seen any Clinton supporters volunteering for Obama thus far. Still, he says, "There's certainly an effort to go there."

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