Anticipation

Taking it to Tampa Bay

by Brian Howard

It's always Tampa.

It was the Buccaneers and Joe Jurevicius who thwarted the Eagles' run to the Super Bowl in 2002. It was the Lightning who ousted the Flyers in seven on their way to the 2004 Stanley Cup. And now this. World Series, 2008: perennial doormats Tampa Bay Rays vs. perennial bridesmaids Phillies. By now, Game 1 is over. Hope we won.

As our E. James Beale documents, the Phillies have, since spring training, been fodder for the naysayers. From Met Carlos Beltran's (unintentionally literal) "we're the team to beat" proclamation (you sure were, Carlos) to Joe Sheehan every day this week on Baseball Prospectus.

Of course, prognostication is a fool's errand in a short series. Of the 18 ESPN experts handicapping things before the beginning of the playoffs, 13 picked the Angels or Cubs. Both posted the best records in their respective leagues. And they both ran into first-round buzz saws.

Part of the disconnect is that what a team did in March and April counts toward the final ledger, but doesn't have much to do with what a team brings to the park, say, tomorrow or next week. Give the Dodgers Manny Ramirez for a full season and they're better than an 84-win squad. The Phillies over the last month — a team in a trance — is not the team that sleepwalked through June.

I'm not in the habit of prognosticating. When two teams get to this point, in the fashions they have, it's almost pointless to posit a prediction. The Rays, the better team on paper, nearly squandered a 3-games-to-1 lead over the Red Sox. The Phillies, the Vegas underdogs, manhandled two opponents many predicted would beat them.

In his analysis Tuesday, Sheehan makes the point that while the Phillies may have more stars, the Rays have a deeper roster. "I keep coming back to one point: The Rays are a much better baseball team than the Phillies are," says Sheehan, who backs up his assessment well using the site's trademark metrics. (He does not, however, reconcile the fact that the Phillies have three hitters better than the Rays' best. Nor does he address why the site's playoff odds report slightly favors the Phillies.)

Sheehan may be right about who's better. But so often a short series comes down to moments:

HALF OFF DEPOT

Why live life at full price?

• Who can rattle the best pitcher on the planet? (The Phillies vs. C.C. Sabathia)

• Who can go on a tear and hit almost as many home runs in the post season as they did all year? (The Rays' B.J. Upton with 9 in the regular season and 7 in the playoffs)

• Who can hit a pinch home run off a closer who doesn't allow them? (Matt Stairs vs. Jonathan Broxton)

• Who can cough up a 7-run lead in the seventh inning of a clinching game? (The Rays in game five of the ALCS)

For their flaws, the Phillies have shown nerves of steel down the stretch. For their strengths, the Rays have shown they're not immune to the yips. This series will come to who unexpectedly has the game/inning/at-bat of their life. Or it won't.

Check citypaper.net/sports often. E. James Beale will be blogging games 3, 4 and 5 live from inside Citizens Bank Park.

I was in Tampa recently for a family wedding, so I got together with good friend/former CP editor in chief David Warner, who's now running the show at Tampa's alt-weekly, Creative Loafing. We've agreed to wager, though we haven't agreed on the stakes. We've talked about sandwiches (if his Rays win, I have to send him Philly cheesesteaks; if my Phillies win, he has to send me Cubanos). We've talked about more embarrassing options: Rays win — I get a Ray-hawk; Phils win, he sings the Rocky theme while running up the bleachers of the Trop. Head over to The Clog or Creative Loafing's site to help us decide.

(bhoward@citypaper.net)