What's the Point?

Not trading Andre Miller makes no sense.

by E. James Beale

Michael T. Regan

The Philadelphia 76ers, as of press time, stand at 26-24, good enough for the second-to-last spot in the NBA's annual playoff tournament. That's the good news. The bad news is that they're only 3-9 against the six teams ahead of them in the East, and have yet to beat any of the conference's top three teams this year. Their best player, do-it-all small forward Andre Iguodala, is not in the top half-dozen players at his position, and you'd have to go back to the 1978-1979 season — a bizarre year in which no team won 55 games — to find a championship team (the now-defunct Seattle Supersonics) on which a player of AI2's caliber might have been the second-best player. According to ESPN stat guru John Hollinger, the odds of the Sixers winning the 2009 NBA championship are roughly one-half of 1 percent. If anything, that seems generous.

I'm harping on this point not to rub salt in the wounds of a franchise that can't seem to draw enough fans to recoup the $80 million it paid a power forward coming off his second major surgery in as many years, but because it's important to understand what position one stands in before trying to move. The 76ers, currently constituted, are in a bad position.

HALF OFF DEPOT

Why live life at full price?

Luckily, until just one week from today, the team has an opportunity to change that. Before the NBA trade deadline, they should move Andre Miller, the unquestioned conductor of the Sixers' mediocre offense.

This will not be enjoyable. Miller's talents are considerable and will not be easily replaced; beheaded, the Sixers will almost inevitably endure a second half of a season that is solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short.

But at the end of this season, Miller will be a free agent, at which point the Sixers will have two options: Re-sign the veteran, or let him walk for nothing. Neither is good.

Re-signing Miller makes no sense. Miller, who admits he's a "West Coast boy" in word and deed (he has a tattoo of California on his back), would not come back at a discount. Further, if the Sixers keep Miller, when Elton Brand returns next season, the team will once again find itself in the awkward position of having both a point guard and a power forward who operate best out of the high post.

If the Sixers let Miller walk, they'll fail to capitalize on his most appealing asset: a $10 million-plus expiring contract. Such a contract means a lot to teams trying to get under the salary cap for the 2010 season; to the Sixers, who are stuck over the cap for the next two and a half years anyway, it means very little. They'll end up downgrading at his position and getting nothing in return.

What's more, if the Sixers keep Miller, they're likely to remain mediocre, and once again get a draft pick in the mid-teens. Because elite talent wins — this year, every All-Star starter was drafted above where the Sixers are slated to pick, yet all now play for better teams — that won't do.

The Sixers need either a true star, the assets to get that star, or, at worst, a player that fills a need better, or longer, than Miller. And the way to get those things is to trade the point guard. Each of these proposed solutions fits one of those needs, is fair enough to be considered by the other team, and yes, works under the salary cap.

A True Star

Unlike last year, when big-name stars such as Jason Kidd, Shaquille O'Neal and Pau Gasol all changed ZIP codes at the trade deadline, top-shelf talent appears likely to stay in place in '09. The big exception, of course, is Suns' all-world forward Amar'e Stoudemire, a 26-year-old coming off a season in which he averaged 25 points, 9 boards and 2 blocks. Can the Sixers package their assets for Amar'e?

From Philly: Andre Miller, Marreese Speights, Thaddeus Young

From Portland: Raef LaFrentz, Sergio Rodriguez

From Phoenix: Amar'e Stoudemire

To Philly: Amar'e Stoudemire, Sergio Rodriguez

To Portland: Andre Miller

To Phoenix: Raef LaFrentz, Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights

The Sixers sacrifice a lot, yes, but they also add one of the best talents of this generation. It's conventional wisdom in the NBA that whoever gets the best player wins the trade. Here, there's no doubt who the best player is.

Assets (Cap Space)

If the Sixers could take a mulligan on the deals of Elton Brand, Samuel Dalembert, Willie Green or Reggie Evans, they would do so in a heartbeat. Trading Miller might give them a chance. Here's one way it could work:

Philly to Portland: Andre Miller, Willie Green

Portland to Philly: Raef LaFrentz

This would free up cap space and allow the Sixers flexibility to sign free agents. They'd be worse in the short term but better down the road.

A Move to Make a Move

Would a move like that work out? Well, if there are better than one-half of 1 percent odds, it's probably worth finding out.

Think it's Miller's time? Say so at The Sports Complex, citypaper.net/sports.