Conclusions, Jumped To

by E. James Beale

In The Merry Wives of Windsor, one of Shakespeare's rare misses, Ford, a jealous husband, addresses the topic of time: "Better three hours too soon than a minute too late." For those of us following sports, the point is well taken.

Next week, when the Phillies take the field for the getaway game of their mid-May series against the Manny-less Dodgers (seriously, at this point let's just have all of baseball take a 50-game breather), the home team will have played just over one-fifth of its regular season. In some respects, that's too soon to learn much about the team. For example: If all the current Phils continued to hit and pitch at their current pace, an astounding six players would finish the season with more than 100 RBIs, Raul Ibanez would become the first Major Leaguer in history to get a base hit in more than 135 games, Jimmy Rollins would steal about one-tenth as many bases as last year, Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer would both break the National League record for home runs allowed in a season and the starting rotation would win less than half the games it did last year. Chan Ho Park would out-homer David Ortiz.

All of that, we can say with confidence, will not happen. But while it may be too early to make definitive proclamations, enough baseball has been played to teach us some lessons. With the time for midseason trades and adjustments fast approaching, it's not a minute too late.

JRoll won't win another MVP

Other than in 2007, (and, truth be told, his NL MVP year was arguably the most statistically mediocre since Kirk Gibson took home the award in 1988), Jimmy has always been a nice little player — he'll hit around .280 with decent pop, good speed, a hell of a glove, and a knack for making things happen — but not the star we imagine him to be. Worse, he's now on the wrong side of 30, his natural skills have begun to slip, and he hasn't yet realized that he needs to compensate; despite his poor average and lack of extra base hits, Rollins has taken just five walks this year. He's become a liability at the top of the lineup. Yes, he's still better than he's been thus far. But we probably should come to grips with the fact that Rollins isn't a star anymore. However, there's some good news on this front ...

Shane Victorino is a legit second-tier star

Victorino, he of the Rule 5 draft, the 5-foot-9-inch build and the career high of 14 home runs, is never going to be MVP. He can't be Jimmy in 2007. What he can be is the Jimmy of 2008 — at least. In fact, last year Victorino outperformed his shortstop in runs, hits, home runs, batting average and the OBP/SLG/OPS trinity. He's a legit gold glove outfielder, knows how and when to run, and hits the ball hard to everywhere in the park. Even if Jimmy doesn't bounce back, the Phillies can sleep easy knowing they have another star in line.

This isn't your slightly older brother's bullpen

In this age of situational specialists, millionaire one-inning guys and pitch counts that seem to double as religious texts, teams have begun to live and die on the backs of their bullpens. Last year both World Series participants owned the best relief staff in their respective leagues.

This year, with Brad Lidge hurting, J.C. Romero suspended and the rest of the gang unable to repeat their out-of-their-weight-class success, the bullpen has fallen back to earth. If the Phils are to get back to the Fall Classic, at least one team there will not have its league's best pen.

Raul Ibanez is the man

If we wanted to have more fun with projections, Ibanez wouldn't be a bad subject. He's on pace to shatter his career highs in every major stat category. That won't hold. What will hold is the left fielder's professional approach, ability to move a runner over and strong contact swing. He's adjusted quickly to a new league and new park; don't expect Rauuuul to trail off too badly.

Jamie Moyer might be (gulp) over the hill

Old Man Moyer is now and forever a folk hero in this town, and he will continue to be effective against young, free-swinging teams until he's 60. That said, his location just hasn't been there this year, and when you're tossing 81 without pinpoint accuracy, you're throwing BP. At some point, age tracks down every runner it races, and Jamie looks like he's gasping for air.

Ryan Howard cares

Over the last three years Ryan Howard has hit 152 home runs and driven in 431 runners. Both of those totals led the majors. Unfortunately, so did his 579 strikeouts; and his 45 errors were tops among first basemen. This year, the Big Man is yet to make an error and has significantly cut down on his strikeouts. If that keeps up, Howard might also improve on another stat from last year: His second-place finish in the MVP vote.