Get Roy or Die Trying

What's it going to take to get Doc Halladay on our side?

by E. James Beale

Last Sunday against the Boston Red Sox, who are the best team in the best division in baseball, the Blue Jays' 32-year-old starting pitcher Roy Halladay threw 105 pitches over the course of nine innings, and allowed six runners to reach base, only one of whom returned to home plate. The remaining 27 were all set down, seven by strikeout, which was seven more than reached first on a free pass. The outing, a win for the Blue Jays, set Doc Halladay's season record at 11-3, lowered his ERA to 2.73 and improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio to 113-17. Put simply, Harry Leroy Halladay is awesome. His winning percentage over the last eight years is .704, among the best in major-league history — when he pitches, the Blue Jays have been slightly better than the 1998 Yankees, a team led by Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada, future Hall of Famers at the height of their careers. More impressive, when he doesn't take the hill, the Jays in no way, shape or form resemble those Yanks. In fact, their .468 winning percentage sans Doc is almost exactly as bad as that of the '98 Phils, led by Rico Brogna, who stunk.

And now, the 6-foot, 6-inch righthander has been made available for a trade.

This brings us to the Philadelphia Phillies, a team that could use an awesome pitcher or two. The Phillies ERA isn't 2.73 — in fact, a recent hot steak has improved the home team's ERA to third worst in the league, which is slightly better than their staff rankings in batting-average against and total bases against. Come October, that usually matters.

Last year the Phillies managed to catch lightning in a bottle in the postseason, riding both the single hottest streak of Cole Hamels' career and a team ERA that was more than a half run below the regular season mark. It was exhilarating, but not exactly a game plan you can count on. Adding Halladay would eliminate the need to replicate that postseason luck.

On top of that, the Phillies may be built for the long term, but they are built to win now. Ryan Howard probably has a couple of years left as MLB's premier power guy, but his stats and body type both suggest a sudden drop-off around 2011. Chase Utley, too, can only be The Man for so long. The Phils' stoic superstar is 30, playing a position where zero guys 34 or older get regular time. Those two aren't alone: Jimmy Rollins has shown clear signs of regression, and Raul Ibañez and Pedro Martinez, the two newest Phillies that matter, are a combined 74 years old, which is just a little younger than hometown hero Jamie Moyer. The Phillies have a definable window; acquiring Halladay could turn that window into a door. Still, I'm not here to convince you that the Phillies should trade for Roy Halladay. That part should be obvious. I'm here to let you know they will.

The Phillies current circumstance is hardly an accident. Ever since rookie general manager Ruben Amaro took over, the team has been decidedly about the here and now. Think about it: They signed Ibañez, the oldest top-tier free agent on the market, to a deal that ends when Ibañez will be 40, older than every other position player currently in baseball. They re-signed Jamie Moyer, the oldest player in baseball, to a two-year deal, then filled their triple-A club with former major leaguers and opted to bring in Rodrigo Lopez and Pedro Martinez, 33 and 37 years old, rather than give some kids with potential a shot to solidify the rotation. The Phillies are about winning this year, and they know that a team with Halladay and Hamels at the front of their playoff rotation would treat the rest of the NL like an Aunt Sally doll — lining them up just to knock them back down.

There's also this: Amaro loves pitching. The day Junior was introduced, he proclaimed that "pitching wins, and we want to strengthen that." Later he admitted that the Phils were looking for a "frontline starter," which is as thinly veiled a euphemism for Halladay as "flu-like symptoms" is for being hung over. Rube covets an ace.

The Phils' rise to prominence has made the value of their assets skyrocket. J.A. Happ, who a few months months ago was competing for a job with Kyle Kendrick, has put together a nice string of starts and is the potential cornerstone of a deal for a top-three pitcher. Jayson Werth is an All-Star, but that wouldn't have happened if he played for anyone but the World F. Champs. And three Phils' prospects who last year couldn't crack Baseball America's top 50 are suddenly in the top 25. Unlike six months ago, the Phillies have the assets to get Roy Halladay into red pinstripes, and the price can be paid doughnuts to dollars. Does Kyle Drabek have the potential to become Halladay? Maybe. But, like all prospects, right now the 21-year-old righthander is a lot closer to Masal Bugduv.

Can the Phillies win without The Doc? Maybe. They did it last year. Thankfully, though, we'll probably never have to find out.