It's the Bullpen, Stupid

by E. James Beale

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Published: Aug 26, 2009

Last Oct. 29, two full days after the Phillies and Rays began what would eventually become the longest Game 5 in World Series history, Brad Lidge leaned toward home plate, took his sign, stood upright, cocked his head just once and tossed a hard slider past the bat of a journeyman named Eric Hinske for strike three. Victorious, Lidge fell to his knees, threw his arms and eyes toward the sky and waited for the rest of the new world champions to pile on.

Of course, you knew all that. Lidge's final pitch and celebration — as with Tug McGraw in 1980 — is the defining image of the 2008 championship. If you Google "Phillies win," it's the first image that shows up. Fittingly, too. Cole Hamels and the offense may be the bigger names, but it was Lidge who had been the most (only?) truly consistent player on the team. It was Lidge who local writers tabbed the team's MVP.

It wasn't all Lidge, of course; led by their closer, the 2008 Phillies had the best bullpen in the majors.

Phils relievers led the National League in ERA, total bases against, and Baseball Prospectus' wins-added rankings. With J.C. Romero and Ryan Madson forming a formidable late-inning duo, Chad Durbin and long-man Clay Condrey filling gaps, and Scott Eyre emerging as one of the game's best left-handed specialists, the Phillies did not lose once when leading after eight innings. This year they have lost several of those games. Sixteen times the bullpen has blown saves. Lidge, who seems to have morphed from circa-1981 Rollie Fingers to circa-2003 Billy Koch, has the highest WHIP (1.73) and ERA (6.75), most blown saves (eight), and worst home run rate (1.9 per nine innings) of any closer in the league. This year, the Phils' bullpen is not even in the top half of the league. How bad is it? Almost as bad as the Mets'. Maybe the Phillies don't need the bullpen they had last year — after all, the rest of the Phils are different, too. They have three new All-Stars and two new Cy Young winners.

If Cliff Lee keeps pitching like a souped-up Henry Rowengartner, maybe Lidge and Co. won't even be able to get on the field come playoff time. But that doesn't mean the bullpen's return to form wouldn't help. A lot.

Last October, the Phillies weren't the only World Series competitor with the best bullpen in their league — the Rays' pen paced the AL.

That's not a coincidence.

In today's game, filthy with one-out specialists, one-inning closers and six-inning aces, bullpens matter. Jay Jaffe, one of the authors of Baseball Prospectus, explains that not only do good bullpens improve teams beyond the numbers (he equates a good bullpen to clutch hitting) but they matter more in the post season. "There is," he says, "a significant correlation between having an elite closer and having postseason success." It makes sense. Throughout the regular season last year, Lidge pitched about an inning every three games. In the playoffs, that jumped to two out of three. Pitching like he did in 2008, that gave the Phils a huge lift. Pitching like he has in 2009 would drag them down.

If the Fightins choose to focus some attention and resources on the pen, they've got some tough decisions to make. The most obvious is whether to switch around roles. If your closer matters so much, you want to make sure the guy you're throwing in the ninth is your best. But who? If they decide it's not Lidge, maybe it's Ryan Madson, who stumbled in the closer role earlier this season. Maybe J.A. Happ gets bumped back to the pen where he was effective to start the year. Maybe Brett Myers returns from his bar-fighting career and gets another go as the Rock Star. Maybe pitching in the ninth inning revs up Pedro Martinez's big-game juices. Maybe the Phils check to see if closing would have some appeal to disgruntled Jamie Moyer. Hell, maybe the Phils kick the tires on a Billy Wagner type to see if he has a few innings left. If the Phils do decide to change things up, they won't want for options.

Their other path, while certainly not sexy, might be their best: Do nothing. Romero is due back from injury soon; Madson absolutely owns the eighth inning; and it is not impossible that their current closer might simply be the victim of bad luck. Lidge insists that, mechanically, nothing has changed from last year's "Lights Out" to this year's "Lit Up." He's not as wrong as you think. Lidge has looked so bad in part because more balls hit softly against him are dropping in or going out — his opponents' BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and home run rates have risen even as his line-drive percentage has dropped. Both of those may normalize. It's possible he'll just return to form.

At the end of the day the Phils have a roster full of guys who are in their prime and playing well. Besides, they're the reigning World F. Champions. Things are good. Still, it's worth remembering that the blueprint they followed last year is not the one that's working for them right now. If they don't find a way to get back on track, your Phils — all stars, MVPs and all — may have a very different iconic image come November. Remember, the last three Phillies World Series ended with their closer on the mound.

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