Hope: A Four-Letter Word

Philly fans are bigger optimists than you may think.

by E. James Beale

	print	email	reply	rss feed

Published: Sep 9, 2009

"No matter how bad life gets, we know someday we'll all get to feel like winners."

Pat Peoples, the protagonist of Matthew Quick's 2008 novel, The Silver Linings Playbook (read an excerpt here) was written as the quintessential Philadelphia fan — a wide-eyed optimist. "Optimist" may sound like a strange diagnosis of our notoriously hard-bitten sports town, but Peoples represents Philly fans a lot more than a fleeting glance might indicate.

It's "the Moby-Dick theory," Quick explained in a recent e-mail. "Having never been to the promised land keeps [Eagles fans] hoping, gives us something to look forward to and puts us squarely in the company of others who believe that no matter how bad life gets, someday the Birds will win the big game, there will be a parade and we'll all get to feel like winners."

Quick didn't write Peoples from the outside, either: The author is a dyed-in-the-wool Birds fan who gained his perspective from the trenches. And, at least during the off-seasons, his portrait isn't far off. Each opening day, Philadelphians seem to genuinely believe that this could be the year.

With visions of Super Bowls dancing in their heads, a seemingly huge majority of local fans are talking about the playoffs and thinking about more.

Unfortunately, they're all probably wrong. Not only can this year's version of the Philadelphia Eagles not win a chip, they won't even be able to seriously contend. Why? Let's start with the three big reasons:

The Structure

Ironically, the main reason fans are excited this year — the splashy off-season additions to the offense — might double as the reason they shouldn't be. Michael Vick's media presence aside, the Eagles' biggest off-season changes were to the offensive line. They added former All-Pro left tackle Jason Peters and Stacy Andrews, guard Shawn's brother, to solidify the unit. Unfortunately, offensive line play is about a lot more than just talent. According to Football Outsiders, the stat geek's football bible, ability on the offensive line isn't enough. Using a formula too complicated to explain in this space, FO was able to measure what made offensive lines effective. What it found was that a good line seems to be nearly as much a function of continuity as individual skill — not a good sign for a team starting five guys who will play their first live snaps together this Sunday.

The other big off-season move might backfire strategically, as well. Designated role or not, Michael Vick is a starting quarterback. Ron Jaworski, a guy who knows a thing or two about being pressed by a younger, more athletic QB in this town, recently told ESPN's Mike and Mike that public smile or no, McNabb won't take this well. "Think of this," Jaws reasoned. "The Eagles fall behind 10-0. Donovan's 1-for-6 in the first quarter, and the previous couple games Michael Vick has made a couple plays. I will guarantee you 65,000 people at Lincoln Financial Field will be cheering for Michael Vick to come on the field."

Even if that scenario doesn't emerge, Vick could be disruptive. Before the first half of their first preseason game together was over, McNabb called on the Eagles to let him take all the snaps so he could get in rhythm. When the regular season starts, how long will be it before McNabb decides he needs that rhythm again? A drive? A quarter? A half? It wasn't a question a month ago.

Finally, the much-ballyhooed offensive-minded draft doesn't look like it will be ready to contribute, either. This year, unlike any other year in Andy Reid's tenure, the Eagles added offensive weapons with their top picks. Neither is likely to pay immediate dividends.

Jeremy Maclin, the Eagles' first-round pick out of Missouri, is being hailed as a second coming of DeSean Jackson, last year's explosive rookie wideout. That's wrong. Jackson was able to transition smoothly both because of opportunity — he started his first pro game, something that Maclin will definitively not — and because he, also unlike this year's rook, came from a pro-style offense. No one is suggesting that Maclin, who played in the spread at Missouri, can't be a good pro, just that he almost certainly won't be one this year. When it comes to assessing this year, that matters.

LeSean "Shady" McCoy, drafted as Brian Westbrook's eventual replacement, should also struggle to find the field. Westbrook fits Reid's system so well not only because of his versatility with the ball, but also because he's so good without it — his blitz recognition is up there with any back in the league. Shady's isn't.

The Defense

For years, the Birds have prided themselves on being a defense-first football team. Around the heart of safety Brian Dawkins and the brain of coordinator Jim Johnson, the Birds built a 10-year body of work that rivaled anyone in the NFC. In Philly we've come to expect good defense. This year we might not be able to.

When Dawkins departed for Denver this off-season, it was assumed that the Eagles lost a leader in the locker room but not much on the field. Safety was supposed to be safe. Thus far, it hasn't been. All preseason Quintin Demps, the once-presumed starter, has been out of position and angry that his superiors have noticed. "If I had known [I wouldn't be given a starting position] I would have probably worked extra," he bitterly deadpanned when he heard he, unlike the starters who did work extra, would be playing in the preseason finale. He has since been replaced by Macho Harris, a rookie learning a new position.

Worse, that potential hole at safety became compounded when Stewart Bradley, the Birds' emerging star linebacker, went down for the year. Big Blue might have missed an occasional gap assignment, but he, like Dawkins, and last year's defense, could stop the run.

As if that weren't enough, Jim Johnson won't be around to make it all better. Last year, all credit for a Week Three win over the eventual Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers went to the late coordinator, who succumbed to melanoma this July. "He's like a shark," Darren Howard marveled. "He called blitzes that we didn't even go over this week. ... He was hot today." It was a common refrain. Jim Johnson had the rare ability to drastically affect the outcome of a game from the sideline. Johnson's replacement, 35-year-old Sean McDermott, might not.

The Talent

The biggest issue facing the Eagles isn't strategy or positioning — it's straight-up talent. Last year, no Philadelphia Eagle made the All-Pro First Team and just one (Quintin Mikell) was placed on the Second. Mikell and Asante Samuel both might be Top 5 players at their positions, but it's equally possible that neither is, and they're the only two with a real shot at the honor. In the NFL, high-end talent matters and, unfortunately, this Eagles team just doesn't have it. Worse, their division does. The three other NFC East teams have more 2008 Pro Bowlers than the Birds, led by the Giants with seven.

Look, I don't expect to change many minds with this column, especially not after Donny and co. wipe the floor with the Panthers on Sunday. Still, early-season optimism and a couple wins won't change the fact that the Birds are in trouble. If, come midseason, a couple of those weaknesses have been exposed, I expect we'll see the other side of Philadelphia fans come out. You know, the ones who aren't wide-eyed optimists.

Mallet Ballet
Icepack
A Million Stories
The Bell Curve