Do It Again?

Predictions for the Phillies' 2009 postseason.

by E. James Beale

Last Wednesday, right about the time the Marlins were jumping out to a 5-0 lead over the Braves and ensuring that the Phillies wouldn't actually have to win the game they were playing to clinch their third straight playoff berth, Pedro Feliz drove a Brian Moehler fastball just to the right of the Harry Kalas tribute sign in left field (the sign which, hours later, the Phils would stagger out and pay respects to). The drive gave the Phillies five runs to the Astros' three in a game they'd win handily, 10-3. Unlike 2007, when the Phils clinched on the last day of the season, or 2008, when the eventual World Fucking Champions allowed themselves one meaningless game before the playoffs, this year's team won with an entire series to spare. Truthfully, it's seemed like the home team had it locked up far longer than that — they've been in first place since May. For the Phillies, the 2009 regular season, like the game that clinched it, was easy. The postseason won't be. Baseball's second season isn't like the first. The game is different: Rotations shrink, guys don't get off days and the best relievers are called on again and again and again. In October, you can't hit off the ladies tees:

What Have You Done for Me Lately?

Over the course of 162 games, the most talented teams rise to the top. For the Phillies, with their lineup of All Stars and rotation of Cy Youngs, that's good. But in a shortened series, "It's not necessarily the best team that has success in the playoffs," admitted general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. on clinching night. "Sometimes it's the hottest." For the Phils, that's not good news. Since 2000, only two out of the nine eventual National League champions weren't riding a league-best winning streak into the playoffs. If the Phillies, who haven't won a series in two-and-a-half weeks, repeat as WFCs, they'll have to be the third.

In the regular season, teams configure their 25-man rosters to face 30 teams. Come playoff time, that second number drops to one. That isn't usually a huge deal — more often than not, any one team's best 25 guys don't dramatically shift from series to series — but for the Phils, it matters.

In the playoffs, teams tailor their rosters to their series opponent. Last year, the Dodgers took down the favored Cubs because they matched up so well. The Cubs' lineup was almost entirely right-handed; the Dodgers pitched all righties in their three-game sweep and held the feared Cubs to just six runs in the series. In the regular season most teams would have one or two left-handed relievers to throw against the Phillies' left, left, left middle of the lineup. In October, any team that draws the Phils could stack their bullpen with southpaws. In other words, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez may not face another righty when it matters the rest of the year.

Starting rotations change, too. In the regular season, rotations go five deep. In the playoffs, that number drops to four. In September, the Phils' fifth starter was either Pedro Martinez or J.A. Happ. While other teams threw rotation filler like the aforementioned Mr. Moehler, the Phillies put forward either the greatest pitcher of our generation or the presumptive rookie of the year. Losing their fifth starter hurts the Phillies.

The flip side of not having your worst guy throwing is that your best guy goes more often. For a team with a reigning Cy Young pitcher and a guy who won the League Championship Series and World Series MVPs a year ago, that should be a good thing. But after entering the National League blistering, Cliff Lee has cooled quickly, throwing just one quality start in his last seven. And Hamels has given up 15 runs in his last five turns.

In October, closers matter. Baseball Prospectus recently discovered a strong correlation between the effectiveness of a team's closer and the fruitfulness of its postseason. Last year Brad Lidge pitched twice as often in October than he did in the regular season. And, because he was awesome (1.95 ERA and 12 strikeouts per 9 innings), he gave the Phils a huge advantage. This year, Lidge, with his limping fastball and 7-plus ERA, won't. Last October the Phils turned games over to the best bullpen in the majors. This year they're considering turning to J.A. Happ — a guy who has pitched in the ninth inning as a reliever once all year.

None of this means the Phillies can't repeat. Last year the Phils weren't the best team in the league. This year they may be. That matters. But what mattered more last year was the fact that the Phils had the most momentum, a hot ace and the league's best closer. Come autumn, they became a better team. This year, they just got worse.