No, You Shut Up

We have no idea what obstacles the 2010 Phils will face.

by E. James Beale

Mike Tyson, in a rare moment of perfect elucidation, once summed up life thusly: "Everybody has a plan until they get hit in the mouth." Now, just one week after the Philadelphia Phillies came within two games of repeating as WFCs, every analyst, professional and otherwise, is scrambling to explain how the 2010 Phils can get those last two wins: The Inquirer's Andy Martino clamored for a super sub to back up the Hall of Fame middle infield. Both ESPN contributors and Rich Hofmann of the Daily News suggested the Phillies add ace Roy Halladay, and Joe Sheehan of Sports Illustrated wants Kyle Drabek to save the bullpen — something every message-board expert agrees needs saving. The Phils have problems, analysts say, and they have the answers.

They're all wrong. Maybe not exactly wrong — who doesn't want more talent? — but wrong broadly. Right now, in November 2009, we have no idea what obstacles the 2010 Phils will face.

Last year, too, everyone thought they had the Phillies figured out. Coming off their first World Series victory in what seemed like thousands of years, the conventional wisdom had it that the Phillies were set: After all, they were bringing back seven of eight starting position players, four starting pitchers, an ace closer and the back-end of the bullpen that routinely ended games seven innings in. Their biggest spring training concern wasn't themselves, the CW went. It was the Mets.

So stand pat, the experts said, and collect the chips.

In many ways, that strategy worked. The team was just one win from last year's regular season total of 92,and Jimmy, Shane, Chase and Ryan, the Phils' top four hitters, combined for one more home run and almost exactly the same batting average as 2008. But in other ways, it didn't. Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge were supposed to be as rock-solid as the offense. We all know how that worked out.

There were positive surprises, as well — Cliff Lee and Jayson Werth, for example. Now that consistent front of the lineup, Hamels' and Lidge's foibles, and the continued dominance of Lee and Werth are supposedly part of next year's plan. In 2010, the great analysts presume, everyone will play like they did in 2009 — meaning Hamels and Lidge will continue to suck.

That's crazy. Contrary to popular opinion, Hamels' problem wasn't his head. It was his arm. In 2008, Hamels pitched 72 more innings than he ever had in his major league career. Then he rested, and when the season rolled around, it showed: This year opponents hit more than 90 batting-average points better against him in pitches 30-through-60 than they did from one-to-30, a drop-off not normally seen until pitch counts reach triple digits. So maybe something as simple as a conditioning change allows him to bounce back. Lidge, too, might not be done. Remember, his glorious 2008 season only happened after he fell apart in Houston. (A post-season exam did reveal that he'd been pitching with a potentially damaged tendon. A rebound after surgery isn't impossible.)

If those two can remember how to pitch and/or get healthy, the Phillies have solved their two biggest problems already.

And that would be helpful, because they'll have new ones. Cliff Lee threw 272 innings this year — more than Cole last year — and if that catches up with him, or if Jimmy takes another step back, or if Utley actually sits when he gets hurt, or if one of a thousand other things that aren't planned for happens, the team will have to address unforeseen needs. These are, in the Rumsfeldian vernacular, the "known unknowns." Outside of the Yankees' ability to buy championships, nothing in baseball stays static. Change is inevitable and unpredictable.

The point isn't just to throw up our hands and hope for the best. It's to stress that we shouldn't fight the last war. Last offseason, the Mets threw all of their resources at a shaky bullpen. But when a couple of their stars went down, they didn't have the depth to get within 20 games of .500. If the Phillies throw all their resources at today's problems, they won't have anything left for tomorrow's.

Look, if the Phillies want to return to the World Series, they'll have to make some changes. That's a given. But those changes can either address problems that the know-it-all pundits imagine right now — problems that exist before the punch — or they can address the problems that the punch creates.

E. James Beale has a plan. Who wants to punch him? Call dibs at e.james.beale@citypaper.net.