Trade Ryan Howard

This writer thinks we should deal the Big Man.

by E. James Beale

Ryan Howard is a really, really good ballplayer. He's coming off his fourth straight season finishing in the top five of the National League's MVP voting. This year marked his second straight World Series, and his fifth season in the heart of the Phillies lineup. He's in the conversation for best-pure-power-hitter-ever. He's one of the greatest offensive players in the history of the Philadelphia Phillies. He's a cornerstone of the team. If there were no Ryan Howard, there would have been no WFC in 2008, and there would have been no World Series berth in '09. No Phillie should ever wear No. 6 again. Trade him. Trade him now. Here's why:

His Future

Historically, Howard's skill set (power and, well, power) is one that does not hold up. Baseball Prospectus puts together lists of every major league player's "comparable players," filled with former guys whose career arcs most accurately mirror current major leaguers. Howards' list — Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder, Richie Sexton, David Ortiz, Travis Hafner — reads like a who's-who of guys who fell off the face of the MLB earth. Historically, big, strong power hitters with limited auxiliary skills just don't age well into their 30s. Last week, Ryan turned 30.

His Present

The player Howard is today may be less valuable to the Phillies than it would be to another team. Howard's impressive stats come by taking what is given to him. Last year, against right-handed pitching, he hit .320 with 39 home runs. Against lefties? .207 and six. Over the course of a season, that's fine. But in the playoffs, when teams can stack their rotations with lefties, he's less of an asset. If your team wants to reach October, he's your guy. If you want to win in October, that's another matter.

The Team's Future

In 2011 the Phillies, as currently constructed, have committed $76 million and have six guys under contract. If they want to maintain their championship-caliber team, they'll have to either shed some of that payroll, or bring in some young, cheap talent. Trading Howard does both.

It won't be just a financial decision. Once again, Ryan Howard is the new Jim Thome. Even putting aside the fact that the Phillies' top-two position prospects, Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor, are blocked by All Stars, and will need a place to play, the Phillies may need first base open to accommodate their other offensive superstar, now-second baseman Chase Utley. If you expect Utley, 31 when next season starts, to live out his current contract with the Phils — let alone grow old here — it probably won't be at second, which is no place for old men. On top of that, Howard's future in Philadelphia is probably limited anyway. At the end of 2011, Howard will be a free agent. He'll want a deal in the $200 million range, and, almost certainly, the Phils won't give it to him. Right now, they have the ability to turn him into a franchise-changing haul. If Mark Teixeira — the now-Yankees first baseman who changed ZIP codes three times in two years for rapidly shrinking bounties — is any indication, next year the Phils won't. If the team doesn't believe that he'll be a productive Phillie three, four, five years down the line, then they're being irresponsible by not moving him out.

The Team's Present

No, trading Howard won't kill the Phillies in the short turn. Howard is slated to earn $19 million next year; that's money that could be put to better use — namely, allowing the Phils to pursue others players of value.

For instance: Toronto ace Roy Halladay is prohibitively expensive for the Phils. Take $19 million off the books, and that's no longer the case. Trading Ryan not only means an influx of young talent that can boost a bench that went zero-for-the-World Series, but it would also allow the Phils to get in the hunt for a guy who, unlike Ryan, is more important to a team headed to the playoffs, like, say, a front-line pitcher.

Look, no one wants to trade a guy like Ryan. He's likable, he's productive, and he's helped bring the Phillies to where they are. Now, use him to get further.

E. James Beale's editors think he is fucking insane. Do you agree? E-mail him at e.james.beale@citypaper.net.