A scene from apparent Oscar winner Slumdog Millionaire

Courtesy of Fox Searchlight

In their most recent issue, New York magazine was smart enough to nab FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver to predict the winners of this year's Oscars (check out the piece for more explanation of his choices). Silver's statistical analysis is eerily spot on — despite shortchanging the Phillies last season — and we wholly endorse his recent move from predicting baseball to pretty much whatever the hell he wants (i.e. presidential election). So without further ado, the winners of the 2009 Academy Awards (probably) are…

Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)...........................85.8%

Our response: Well, duh.

Supporting Actress
Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button).......................51.0%

Our response: Kind of a surprise, her part wasn't that meaty but that's not a huge problem considering it was nine hour long movie. Viola Davis didn't have a long part in Doubt, either, but girly owned her 15 minutes (against Meryl Streep, no less) and we've always been a fan of short performances that overtake a film (we're looking at you Beatrice Straight from Network). While we're happy Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) has finally found her English speaking niche, we're still going with Viola on this one.

Lead Actor
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler).........................71.1%

Our response: Ok, this is where Silver's predictions may encounter problems. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is like high school. Members are the popular kids and if you piss them off, they won't let you sit at their table. While Mickey Rourke totally deserves this award (because he was flat out fabulous in The Wrestler), he also has a penchant for saying stupid things to the press, which could seriously hurt him. Plus, nearest contender Sean Penn (19%) won the SAG award and he's got a lot going for him: He's up as a gay activist in the wake of a Brokeback Mountain snub in '06 and the passage of Prop. 8 in California banning gay marriage. But who doesn't love a great redemption story? Mickey Rourke certainly has that covered AND his fave dog Loki just died so we say give it to him.

Lead Actress
Kate Winslet (The Reader).............................67.6%

Our response: Shaun Brady said that Kate was the best part of the otherwise mediocre The Reader and most critics agree. She's also been nominated 47 times and never won so we agree and figure Kate should start preparing her speech.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire.................................99.7%

Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire..............99.0%

Our response: Apparently, so should Danny Boyle and the Slumdog contingent. Both have won a majority of top awards and Deadline Hollywood Daily's Nikki Finke said it was a lock way back in December. Slumdog has the dramatic storyline yet is still inherently uplifting (which many say doomed Sam Mendes' bleaker than bleak Revolutionary Road from picking up many noms).

So what do you guys think? Is Silver on the money? Who do you think will scoop up their bald, gentalia-less man during this Sunday's telecast?

Related: The Oscar Noms, CP-Style

Spoiling Oscar: Nate Silver predicts the Academy Awards